A year ago, tariffs upended pricing and sourcing across the promotional products industry. With a major trade deadline approaching on November 10, 2026, here's an updated look at where things stand, and what it means if you're planning an order.
A Quick Refresher
Tariffs on Chinese imports have technically existed since 2018, sitting at a relatively stable average of around 19% for years. That changed dramatically in 2025, when new tariffs escalated fast, briefly peaking as high as 164% before a series of negotiated truces walked rates back down over the following months. It was the most disruptive stretch the industry had seen in decades.
Where We Are Now
A Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 struck down several of the broadest tariffs, and negotiated deals since then have settled the average rate at around 36%, still nearly double the pre-2025 baseline, but far from last year's peak. Nearly 90% of distributors raised prices in 2025 by about 11% on average as a direct result, and those higher prices have largely stuck even as rate volatility has eased.
Where the Future May Take Us
One of the key relief measures currently in place is set to expire November 10, 2026. What happens after that is genuinely uncertain. Rates could hold steady, get renegotiated lower, or spike again if trade tensions resurface.
Domestic Inventory vs. Overseas Production: Why It Matters for Timing
Not every order is exposed to tariff changes the same way. Much of the promotional products supply chain runs through domestic factories holding blank inventory, goods purchased overseas previously, brought in, warehoused domestically, and decorated on demand. Because of this, tariff impacts on these orders are naturally delayed: existing inventory has to work its way down before a factory needs to place new overseas orders at the prevailing tariff rate. Ordering from domestic inventory today generally reflects pricing set before any future tariff change, not after it.
Orders that require new overseas production, meaning items that aren't sitting in domestic inventory and need to be manufactured and imported specifically for that order, are directly exposed to whatever tariff rate is in effect at the time of import. A change after November 10 would hit that category of order much faster.
The Practical Takeaway
If your order can be filled from existing domestic inventory, timing relative to the November deadline matters less than you'd think. If your order requires new overseas production, locking it in now is the more meaningful move, since it's the category most exposed to whatever happens next.